An outside group has determined that reaching the goals outlined in the “Green New Deal” by 2050 are practically impossible.
The Heritage Foundation attempted to use a government tool, the Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Model to forecast the impact of steep carbon taxes aimed at reaching the net-zero greenhouse gas emissions goal that’s supported by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, House Democrats, and a host of 2020 presidential candidates.
Not only did the model crash, it failed to approach anywhere near the goal outlined in the “GND.”
“Carbon taxes above $300 (resulting in slightly above 50 percent CO2 reductions by 2050) cause the model to crash, and thus a 58 percent CO2 reduction from 2010 levels is the largest level we are able to model,” the study’s authors, Nicolas D. Loris and Kevin D. Dayaratna, wrote in the study published on Wednesday.
The economic impact would be back breaking. Just a 58 percent reduction would, by 2040, cost the economy $15 trillion in lost gross domestic product and an average of 1.1 million jobs per year. The average family of four would also see a total income loss of $165,000, or nearly $8,000 each year.
In her resolution for the “GND,” Ocasio-Cortez pointed to a United Nations report which determined that global warming at or above 2 degrees Celsius would lead to a host of bad outcomes. Those included mass migration, a loss of more than 99 percent of all the Earth’s coral reefs, raging wildfires, and more than $500 billion in lost annual economic output just for the U.S.
It’s unclear, however, how much the “GND” would be able to halt those catastrophic impacts. Through a model that the U.N. has utilized, Heritage found that a 100 percent cut in emissions would only “have a negligible impact on global warming.”
For Heritage’s analysis, it assumed emissions reductions would be twice as effective as former President Obama’s Interagency Working Group assumed in changing the climate. Yet and still, “the world would only be less than 0.2 degree Celsius cooler by the year 2100, and sea-level rise would be slowed by less than 2 centimeters.”
The emissions target is just one aspect of the “GND” which also purports to guarantee “high-quality health care,” affordable housing, and “economic security.” An analysis by the right-leaning American Action Forum (AAF) incorporated other aspects of the plan and found that it could cost as much as $94 trillion. Like Heritage, though, AAF also said that the totality of the “GND’s” costs was impossible to quantify and likely higher than the estimate it reached.
“Our cost estimates constitute a significant underestimate of the true costs of the Green New Deal as the carbon tax and regulations do not completely achieve the policy objectives outlined in the non-binding resolution,” the study read.
“Furthermore, the analysis does not account for the direct taxpayer costs, as advocates want to pay for the Green New Deal through a massive stimulus-style package. Layers of additional regulations and mandates, such as the proposal’s objective to maximize energy efficiency for every new and existing building in the U.S., would drive costs even higher.”
According to a fact sheet posted and quickly removed by Ocasio-Cortez’s office, the “GND” would only be “a tiny part” of achieving emissions reductions. “We cannot simply tax gas and expect workers to figure out another way to get to work unless we’ve first created a better, more affordable option,” the fact sheet read.
Thankfully, with a Republican controlled Senate, and a Republican President in Trump in heavy opposition of the catastrophic Green New Deal, it doesn’t stand a chance of becoming a law.