In recent months, the liberal media has hyped up their own polls that claim Joe Biden is leading Trump by a large margin. Although many question their accuracy, some on the left say Joe’s win is a done deal. But one professor (who got 2016 right) is saying Trump’s got a 91% chance to win. Here’s the data why.
We all remember 2016. The mainstream media was predicting a massive Hillary Clinton victory. All the polls gave her a huge win from the very start. They were totally wrong. This year, the liberal media’s pollsters have done absolutely nothing differently. Using the same kind of polling tactics, they say a man with dementia is going to defeat a president with overwhelming support from his base.
One professor is saying something different. His election model has effectively determined every winner since 1912—with only two exceptions. He was right when he said Trump had an 87% of winning 2016. Now he’s saying Trump’s 2020 victory is all but assured.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91% chance of winning in November. This model has picked the winner in all but two elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced, including, of course, Trump’s victory in 2016.” [Source: Washington Times]
How can Professor Norpoth have such a confident prediction? His model uses the primary turnout from the beginning of the election season as a strong indicator for voter enthusiasm and turnout in November. Looking at the support Trump received during the primary elections (even during COVID), we see he had significantly more support than Joe Biden.
President Trump defeated rival Joe Biden in 2020 primary vote turnout for key swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, even after Biden had essentially sewn up his Democratic Party’s nomination…
Trump received more votes than former President Barack Obama did in 2012 (the year Obama ran for re-election) in 23 of the 27 states which have held primaries in both 2020 and 2012. In many cases, Trump received two or three times Obama’s totals. Trump has also received more votes than former President George W. Bush when the Texan was seeking re-election in 2004. [Source: Just the News]
Not only did Trump earn more primary votes than Joe Biden, but he outpaced both Bush and Obama in number of votes earned for a sitting president running for re-election. Trump earned 934,524 votes in Pennsylvania; Joe Biden earned 914,904. Trump scored 682,843 votes in Ohio, compared to Biden’s 623,186. That trend continued in Florida, Wisconsin, and other states.
This is important for several reasons. First, voters are coming out of the woodwork just to nominate Donald Trump. The president’s nomination was a foregone conclusion. It was unlikely the few weak rivals would be able to truly challenge him. Yet Americans were eager to cast their primary vote in support of Trump. That shows a level of enthusiasm that will continue into the General Election.
Also, Biden struggled to top his rivals during the early days of the primaries. Even after everyone else dropped out, he couldn’t best Trump’s turnout (even in states that he was supposed to be leading in). There is a notable enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden. While the media complains about Trump’s return to campaign rallies, Biden hasn’t even planned one, suggesting nobody would show up if he did.
Even during lockdowns and COVID fearmongering, Americans showed up at the polls to cast their votes for Trump. Joe Biden, however, has a big problem in the form of Bernie Sanders supporters. Reports suggest Biden is struggling to win over this group, with some suggesting at least 15% of Bernie’s people will defect to Trump. Many others might just sit out come November.
Which begs the question: if Trump has the advantage, why are the left’s polls so wrong?