The Fed Bank of Dallas stated that a record breaking 50.5 percent of manufacturers had increased their prices on their products in October, while only 0.7 percent lowered prices. That pushed the dispersion index, which measures price increases against price decreases, to a record breaking high of 49.8, which is up 5.8 points from one month earlier. The current longterm average being 7.4.
The gauge of raw materials prices stayed close to an all-time high but went slightly down to 76.3. This is very high compared to the measured long-term average which is 26.4.
The data is from the Dallas Fed’s monthly poll of Texas manufacturers. Statements from manufacturers put the blame for higher prices on the Biden White House fiscal policy.
“Fiscal policy by the federal government is continuing to form supply-chain concerns and causing an increase in raw material prices along with less customer confidence for goods, which is hurting the forecast for the U.S. economy long-term. The possible recession is ever increasing without any large fiscal policy improvement,” a chemicals manufacturing CEO stated. It is starting to feel like we are headed for a slowdown in the incoming few months with inflation starting in.
The outlook for more inflation is there, although the forward seeking indexes backed down somewhat from Sept. The price went up for finished goods six-month ahead then slipped down 4 points to 40.6 but remains over double the long-term average which is 20.2.
The raw materials gauge also went down 6.4 points to 48.9. The average score on this metric is 34,2
“It is starting to feel like we are going toward a slowdown in the next few months with inflation starting in,” a primary metals maker said.
“Supply-chain disruptions are plaguing many manufacturers,” the Dallas Fed stated. The unfilled orders index, which usually average negatives 1.8 (a negative indicating unfilled orders were going down), went up to 20.9. The delivery time index boosted up to 25.9, the fourth highest amount ever recorded.
The benefits and wages index held close to its own series high at 44.1, an indication of a very tight labor market. Many of the statements in the report showed a difficulty finding employees.
Author: Steven Sinclaire
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