Next are the “rock bottom” PBS numbers, revealing Biden is at 39 percent approval. This pollster asked Americans about Joe Biden’s first year, and most (56/39) saying it was a failure compared to a success. Among independents, the breakdown was worse (66/28).
Then there is the shocking ABC News data set. Strong disapproval outpaces overall approval, in this poll by seven points. Biden is 18 points under overall. One of the most crucial and predictive metrics before a midterm is the president’s rating. Biden’s numbers are in the toilet. Unsurprisingly, his party is looking at some terrible ballot numbers, too: A seven-point lead among voters, which reaches 13 points for the likeliest voters.
Which is why intensity and enthusiasm gaps matter. A very motivated GOP electorate, combined with a demoralized Dem electorate — especially as independents go into red — is very bad for the party in power.
In the famous 2010 GOP wave cycle, the Republican registered voters lead was three points. They got 63 House seats this year. In 2014, another huge GOP year, the party was really trailing the Dems by one point at this time in the ABC series. They ended up getting a total of 247 House seats, boosting by nine seats in the Senate and retaking that majority.
Now compare this new survey with those two banner Republican years. It’s looking much worse for Democrats this time. No wonder a senior advisor to Senator Mitch McConnell is saying the latest ABC data is “new territory.” All the normal disclaimers apply — we are still over eight months from the midterms, things do change, etc. — but on this trajectory, the Dem House majority is gone in a huge way, and Senate Dems will lose five net seats.