The Democratic Party needs to flip exactly three House seats to take back the majority in November. Three. That’s it. So naturally, they’ve decided to spend $64 million trying to destroy each other in primary elections instead.
You can’t make this stuff up!
Axios dropped a bombshell report this week detailing what they’re calling Democrats’ “midterm civil war.” Thirty House Democrats are facing primary challengers who have raised at least $100,000 each, and the collective fundraising in these bloodbath primaries has hit $64 million — out of roughly $500 million raised by all Democratic House campaigns this cycle. That’s money that could be going to the handful of swing districts where the actual election will be decided. Instead, it’s being lit on fire so progressives and establishment fossils can claw each other’s eyes out.
Rep. John Larson of Connecticut put it bluntly. He said he typically sends his fundraising cash to swing districts that need it. Not this year. Larson expects to spend $5 million defending himself in his own primary — up from $400,000 last cycle. Five million dollars. To keep a job he already has. In a district no Republican is going to win.
That’s $4.6 million that won’t be going to some competitive district in Pennsylvania or Michigan where Democrats actually need to pick up a seat. Multiply that by 30 primary fights and you start to see why Hakeem Jeffries looks like a man who just found out his house is on fire and his garden hose is full of holes.
And who’s leading this little insurrection? None other than David Hogg — the Parkland shooting activist turned DNC vice chair turned DNC exile. Hogg got caught on a Project Veritas video calling the Democratic Party a “failing gerontocracy” full of “brainwashed” Democrats. His exact words about what he wanted to do? “Light a fire under some Democrats’ asses to say, ‘get your sht together or get the f*k out of the way.'”
(Nothing says “party unity” like your own vice chair calling you brainwashed geriatrics on hidden camera.)
Hogg launched a PAC called “Leaders We Deserve” after the DNC kicked him out of his elected leadership role and pledged $20 million to primary “ineffective” incumbents. He told 83-year-old Rep. Jim Clyburn to “get over yourself.” His candidates are funded, his primaries are rolling, and the establishment is hemorrhaging cash trying to survive.
Here’s the part that should make every Republican crack open a cold one. Nearly a dozen sitting House Democrats have been outraised by their own primary challengers. The inmates are running the asylum and they’ve got more money than the warden.
One anonymous House Democrat told reporters, “This is the new reality we live in, where people do not care about the party and trying to win. They just care about moving their ideological wing of the party forward.” Another said the challengers “don’t care what Hakeem thinks, they care what AOC may think.”
Amanda Litman, who runs a progressive group called Run for Something, said the quiet part out loud: “The establishment such as it still exists has lost control. The old guard simply doesn’t have the juice anymore.”
The old guard doesn’t have the juice. The old guard doesn’t have the money, either.
We’ve seen this movie before, folks. Twice, actually.
Remember 2016? Donna Brazile — who was the interim DNC chair — later revealed that Hillary Clinton had signed an agreement giving her campaign control over the DNC’s finances, strategy, and staffing decisions during the primary. The party literally rigged it for Hillary, and what happened? The progressive base felt cheated, millions of Bernie voters stayed home or voted in defiance for Donald Trump and Big Orange walked into the White House. The DNC’s internal war handed Republicans the presidency.
Now they’re running the same play in reverse. Instead of the establishment crushing the insurgents, the insurgents are draining the establishment dry. Different faction on top, same result: a party too busy fighting itself to fight the other team.
And the math is brutal. The DNC started 2026 roughly $3.5 million in the red after taking out a $15 million loan for governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey. The RNC? Sitting on nearly $95 million in cash. That’s not a funding gap — that’s the Grand Canyon with dollar signs.
Democrats need three seats. Three! The Republican majority is 220-215. But every dollar John Larson spends defending his safe seat in Connecticut is a dollar that doesn’t go to a swing district. Every dollar Hogg’s PAC dumps into a primary against some 75-year-old incumbent is a dollar Republicans don’t have to match. The Democrats are doing the GOP’s work for free.
But here’s the part nobody’s talking about yet. Even if Democrats somehow pull off the miracle and flip those three seats, what does Jeffries actually inherit? A caucus full of insurgents who specifically refused to pledge loyalty to his leadership. Multiple primary challengers have declined to commit to supporting Jeffries if elected. So picture this: Democrats win the House by three votes, and Jeffries can’t even get his own caucus to agree on what day it is, let alone pass legislation.
Mark my words — the Democrats’ 2026 primary season is going to cost them the House. Not because they don’t have the map (they do) or the political winds (midterms historically punish the president’s party). They’re going to lose it because they spent $64 million beating each other senseless before a single Republican had to lift a finger.
The last time a party burned this much cash fighting itself before a winnable midterm was 2010, when Democrats lost 63 seats. And here’s a fun stat from that disaster: 84% of the incumbents who lost had outspent their challengers and still got wiped out. Spending more money doesn’t save you when your own house is on fire.
The RNC should send David Hogg a thank-you card. Maybe a gift basket. He’s done more for Republican fundraising math than any GOP strategist could have dreamed of.
